The biggest float since Telstra didn't float.

What happened

AI data centre builder Firmus ran its ASX bookbuild to Thursday 8 October, seeking about $7 billion at $11 a share. That implied a valuation of around $44 billion and would have been the biggest Australian float since Telstra in 1997. Demand fell short. On Friday 9 October Firmus withdrew its listing application, citing market volatility, and said it would pursue private funding.

How it unravelled

• Wednesday. Reports that the banks were weighing a lower price and a valuation nearer $30 billion.
• Thursday. The book closed, with the price reportedly sliding from $11 towards $8.25.
• Friday. Offer pulled, ASX application withdrawn.

Who Firmus is

Sydney-based Firmus, founded in 2019, builds what it calls AI factories: data centres for training and running AI models. It lists seven sites across Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Two were operating, and five were under development with a target of being ready within 24 months. Nvidia owns 7.2% and supplies its chips.

What investors priced

• The step-up. An Nvidia-led private round in July valued Firmus at about US$15.5 billion. The float asked public investors to pay a lot more, only months later.
• The debt. Morningstar estimated about US$30 billion of borrowings once the data centres are built, roughly six times the US$5 billion of operating earnings Firmus forecasts for 2028.
• The build. Five of seven sites were still to come, the Tasmanian sites need new power, and CDC scrapped a planned data centre partnership.
• The mood. The ASX All Technology Index was down almost 18% for the year, including 9% in September alone.

Even with US$2 billion of commitments, including from Nvidia and Blackstone, a $7 billion book did not fill at the price.

What's next

Firmus says it will raise privately for now, and reports suggest it may try a US listing next year. A business this capital-hungry will be back in front of public investors. The question is at what price.

The mid-market read

A private round is a data point, not a price. Public investors, like trade buyers, pay for cash flow they can see and capital they trust will arrive. Three things survive a sceptical book: contracted revenue, a funded build plan and secured inputs such as power. If your valuation depends on money you haven't raised and power you haven't secured, expect the book, or the buyer, to discount it.

General information only, not financial product advice.